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September 23rd, 2022

Scenario Analysis. Consider the following scenario analysis:

Rate of Return
Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds

Recession
.20 -5% +14%

Normal economy
.60 +15 +8

Boom
.20 +25 +4

a. Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in recessions than in booms?

b. Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment.

c. Which investment would you prefer?

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